Arundel Partners

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Valuing Movie Sequels as Real Options: Analyzing how the right (but not the obligation) to produce sequel films on successful movie properties functions identically to financial call options, allowing studios to truncate downside risk while capturing upside tail events.
Purchasing Movie Rights in Bulk: Evaluating whether an investment group should pay an upfront fixed fee for the exclusive rights to purchase sequel options on a portfolio of upcoming films before their theatrical release.
Critique of Traditional Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Assessing why standard NPV methods fail when applied to highly volatile entertainment assets and how real options valuation captures managerial flexibility.
Information Asymmetry & Winner’s Curse: Examining the risks of bidding on a blind pool of film rights where studio owners possess superior information regarding script quality and production overruns.
Monte Carlo Simulations & Volatility Estimation: Calculating variance in movie box office returns to feed into binomial option pricing models.

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We solve delicate box office revenue forecasting challenges, studio profit-sharing structures, talent compensation models, and intellectual property valuation issues.

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